Recent record low water levels in the upper Great Lakes Basin have given rise to speculation that due to global warming the lakes might be poised on the edge of a calamitous decline. Lake Superior, largest body of temperate fresh water in the world, has been nearly two feet below its long term averages during the past two years. Lakes Huron and Michigan have experienced the same trend.

A recent report in The Duluth News Tribune seems to offer at least a little hope. In April, Superior’s level rose six inches, double the normal increase for the month, and on May 1 the lake stood ten inches higher than at the same time in 2007. Still 8 inches below its long term average, but compared to the 22 inches measured early in 2007, current levels are seen as a cause for optimism.

According to the International Lake Superior Board of Control, after three dry months, April rain and snowfall over the Superior basin were well above normal, leading to the surge in water levels and continuing an upswing that began last fall. Still, it’s unclear whether the current increase is part of a long-term return to normal or a hitch before low water levels re-assert themselves. While the science is far from conclusive on either side of the matter, the most commonly advanced theory is that that warmer winters will contribute to decreased snow melts and reduced seasonal ice cover which increases the potential for evaporation - resulting in continued low water.

The International Joint Commission (IJC), controversial controlling agency of the St Lawrence Seaway, is in the midst of a $15 million study designed to determine if human intervention is required to help stabilize water levels in the upper lakes. Of the five great lakes, Lake Ontario, smallest in area and furthest downstream, is the only one in which water levels can be controlled, and the IJC has regulated it since 1958.

Regardless of future developments, current Lake Superior levels are cause for optimism because all that water is on its way downstream. Environmental advocates say the lakes have always fluctuated in this manner. Its part of the way things work in the ecosystem, and this rebound is nothing more than nature continuing a cycle thousands of generations old. As if to add an exclamation point to this conclusion, a great deal of the criticism the IJC has received of it’s handling of Lake Ontario over the past few years has been centered around its refusal to allow Ontario to fluctuate in the same way the other lakes do. As environmentalists say, low levels reduce cattail populations and allow the boundary layer between lake and shore to develop and retain more diversity, which has been demonstrated to lead to a healthier environment for both aquatic and nearshore landlocked creatures.

Ironically, lakefront property owners in Michigan are begging the IJC to recommend the exact kind of regulation property owners on Lake Ontario have loudly rejected via their support of IJC Plan B+, which would require the IJC to artificially create the same kind of fluctuations that benefit wildlife to the potential detriment of the interests of property owners and boaters. Seems like it’s all a matter of perspective. Those who don’t have enough water, want more; those who’ve got it, can often have way too much. Regulation of levels might be just what's needed to keep everyone only a little bit unhappy.